Morning traders.
Market wrap:
Stocks may recoup some of yesterday's losses at today's open after a flat night on Wall Street ahead of tonight's much-anticipated European Central Bank press conference.
The September SPI 200 futures contract ended the night session 13 points or 0.3% firmer at 4295 as traders speculated that the ASX overshot during yesterday's sharp sell-off.
US stocks traded in and out of positive territory before closing with minimal change. The S&P 500 dipped two points or 0.11% to remain around the 1,400 level where it has been stuck for three weeks as the market waits for details of the ECB's plan to tackle unsustainable borrowing levels in Europe. The Dow squeezed out a gain of 12 points or 0.09% and the Nasdaq lost 0.19%.
"We've had this wait-and-see going on for three weeks now," the chief investment strategist at Robert W Baird & Co in the US told Bloomberg. "The sellers are being held off from the anticipation of more quantitative easing. You don't want to short or sell in front of that. On the other hand, the economy doesn't seem to be able to make it - either domestically or globally. It's really a stand-off."
Anticipation for tonight's ECB announcement was ramped up by a report that President Mario Draghi plans an unlimited bond-buying program "sterilised" by removing funds elsewhere from the system to prevent runaway inflation. The ECB refused to comment on the report.
The market overcame negative headwinds from a FedEx profit downgrade and more weak economic reads from around the globe. FedEx, widely seen as a bellwether for the global economy, slid 2% after cutting its earnings outlook for this quarter.
European markets ended mixed after services and manufacturing declined more than first estimated last month. The data followed a weakening in China's services industry announced yesterday and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Australia's GDP. Germany's DAX overcame early weakness to advance 0.46%, France's CAC put on 0.2% and Britain's FTSE lost 0.25%.
Australia's big miners had mixed fortunes in US trade as the price of iron ore continued to edge lower. Rio Tinto recouped 0.44% but BHP fell another 0.55%. China's benchmark iron ore price eased another 20 US cents or 0.2% to US$86.70 yesterday as Chinese steel futures plumbed new depths.
"There may be more downside, unfortunately, given the high iron ore inventory in China and no sign of recovery in steel demand," a senior commodities analyst at UOB-Kay Hian in Hong Kong told Reuters. "Iron ore demand is very, very weak."
A bright session for industrial metals lifted some of the gloom, with copper pushing to its strongest level in more than a month, closing above its 100-day moving average for the first time since May. In London, copper rallied 1.3%, aluminium 2.3%, lead 1.65%, nickel 1.1% and zinc 0.8%. US copper for September delivery was recently ahead five cents or 1.5% at US$3.52 a pound.
Oil reversed early losses as US equities came off their lows. West Texas crude for October delivery was lately up 66 cents or 0.7% at US$95.96 a barrel.
Gold consolidated recent gains, with traders reluctant to add or subtract to positions ahead of tonight's ECB meeting and tomorrow night's monthly US jobs report. Gold for delivery was recently down 50 cents or less than 0.1% at US$1,695.50 an ounce.
TRADING THEMES TODAY
ON STANDBY: The long wait for details of Europe's plans to tackle its sovereign debt problem may end tonight - or, unfortunately, it may not if ECB President Draghi delays an announcement until after an important German court decision next week. We've had three weeks of treading water, but at least the downside has been fireproofed by the possibility of QE in Europe and the US. There was little movement in the US overnight and we're unlikely to see much here unless the 11.30am EST jobs report surprises or the bloodbath in the iron ore sector continues. Iron ore eased a little more yesterday, but a fall of 0.2% almost seems like a win after the scale of recent declines. On a brighter note, copper made a significant move upwards overnight.
JOBS: Today's monthly jobs report is expected to show an increase of a tenth of a percentage point in the unemployment rate to 5.3%, despite a moderate net gain of around 5,100 positions, according to Forex Factory. However, the monthly figures are volatile and the market consensus lately has not been a reliable guide to the outcome. In other words, the figures could easily surprise in either direction. The ABS releases the news at 11.30am EST.
ECONOMIC NEWS: Australian employment change and unemployment rate data are due at 11.30am EST (see above). Tonight will be dominated by the European Central Bank press conference and rate decision but there's lots of other action. The Bank of England has a rate announcement, Germany releases factory orders, France holds a bond auction and the US has the monthly non-farm employment change report, weekly jobless claims, services PMI, crude oil inventories and natural gas storage.
Good luck to all.
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