Special Aluminum Intelligence Report: US smelting system well positioned to restart more output 30-Aug-2011 Incoming data from the entire aluminum supply chain is consistent with the idea that underlying dynamics in the demand side of the equation have not been derailed and thus remain constructive for the 2011-2015 period. Nevertheless, supply side dynamics are facing challenging obstacles with special emphasis in bauxite availability, energy affordability, capex and opex increasing costs, and industry policy in China, India, Australia and West Europe.
The primary aluminum market has been in deficit in China and in the Rest of the World so far this year. This contrasts with a balanced market in 2010 and a sizeable surplus in 2008 and 2009.
Indeed, the Americas itself has passed from a comfortable surplus to an uncomfortable deficit. The continent?s surplus was 1.38 million tons in 2009 and we now expect it to end 2011 with a deficit of...
VAN Price at posting:
5.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
