Under a scenario where there’s a flight out of equities and into treasuries, or at least a reasonable flow, the yield will be pushed lower meaning real interest rates will fall further. Given the closest negative correlation to PMs rising, is real interest rates falling, we can expect additional capital flows into PMs to hedge against negative returns (inflation adjusted).
Since the crypto is part of this hedge, we can speculate the hedge will gain momentum. Add to this that this crypto rally (BTC) is driven primarily by institutional buyers and not nascent retail buyers, we have some way to go before the herd arrives and we enter a final phase. Check crypto terms in google trends and we are nowhere near the search volume as
Key analysts in the PM market suggest we are only in innings four of nine. If we look at the HUI and GDX indexes they’ve formed a multi year base, broken out and retesting the break out. On the big cycles the 12, 36, 60 monthly MAs have diverged indicating the secular long term cycle is in a continuation pattern. So this with the macro view fits their conclusions, but is all part of the same underlying phenomena as crypto and the reason serious global money managers have taken positions.
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