@EWexplorerThat’s what I took from what you said.As money gets...

@EWexplorer

That’s what I took from what you said.

As money gets cheaper, investment money will flow to risk on assets. At this moment the FANG stocks have slowed down and value stocks have picked up. The Russell index has outperformed the FANG recently showing a potential change in investment thesis. The danger with the S&P is it is disproportionately over represented by the FANG, so if they turn down after such a stella run, the general index will.

Obvious and as discussed above, money will also flow into BTC and commodities and in particular PMs.

Stagflation is a real possibility given the structural damage done to the economy and the number of potential insolvencies that will occur and the high percentage of zombie companies in the ecosystem. GDP momentum will be difficult to generate depending on the insolvency realisation magnitude.

Climate change is definitely a macro factor to consider, but you can see the globally economies (business and government with the exception of the US under Trump) lean further into real policy change to arrest the trend. This is an important macro input into my position in silver, because green energy (EVs and solar) will require silver and demand will outstrip supply. Of course if the climate issue accelerates then we will have massive social economic disruptions, but this will only be good for silver and BTC, the later more so from a risk hedge perspective IMO.

The biggest danger with population isn’t over population, which is expected to peak at 9.73 billion by 2064 and decline to 8.79b by 2100 (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext), but due to a lower percentage of the population working and contributing tax revenue. The spending habits of this retirement demographic is also much lower than the typical consumer, so there will be an obvious knock on impact to consumption and therefore GDP, but this is a bit of a slow burn vs our current dilemmas.

We will need a paradigm shift in social economic policy to manage this significant risk, which is starting to emerge as MMT, for better or worse. Add AI to the mix and reduced jobs and we have a potential social economic cliff ahead.

So I agree with your conclusion, too many balls but each has its own timeline and therefore it makes good investment sense to develop a cohesive macro POV with each of them considered.