DCC 8.00% 4.6¢ digitalx limited

Hi @Theofanis.Firstly, I'm obviously not here to provide any...

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    Hi @Theofanis.

    Firstly, I'm obviously not here to provide any sort of advice, only my personal perspective. A: Not that I am aware of.

    I am not concerned personally about pending news flows to support BTC short term, its the longer macro cycle that I'm interested in and understanding the probably root cause for BTCs price rise. That is where the big money is made.

    Here's a few macro perspectives to consider:

    1. BTC is currently supported by institutional investors in this current phase, not retail. This is important because institutional investors typically are significantly more stable and expend signficant research energy before taking a position.
    2. The retail herd has not arrived so this move up to 20k is not fueled by volatile retail speculation. Check google trends for terms BTC, bitcoin, etc and you will find the peak in 2017 correlates with the market top. This is not the case with the recent high confirming a lot of hot money hasn't entered a position.
    3. Linchpin global money managers (Paul Tudor Jones, Stanely Drukenmiller, Bill Miller, etc) have taken strategic positions in BTC.
    4. Paypal and Square are institutional first movers into this space. They would have completed significant due diligence before to ensure (a) their brand is not negatively impacted, (b) the CAPEX business case ROI stacked up, (c) the probability of strategic pull through was reasonable at least, but more likely asymmetric in nature - first mover advantage. You need to consider these guys are juggernauts always on the lookout for global business expansion opportunities - they wouldn't waste their time on an initiative if it was going nowhere longer term.
    5. Global economies are in dire straights (before and post COVID) so need to fiscally stimulate using more debt. The US is close to 140% debt (27 trillion USD) to GDP with further stimulus and current account deficits of 4 trillion dollars over the next 2 years. This means they need to keep real rates down - for example, if they raise rates to 2.5% which is not historically high, they would have an interest bill somewhere close to 700 billion dollars - without paying off a cent of debt. Clearly unsustainable. So they have a couple of options (a) default or (b) debase and inflate by keep real rates low. Highly unlikely they will go with (a) because it would destroy confidence in the USD, but governments have opted for (b) in the past because its partially invisible and in particular if they shuffle the CPI inputs in the metric.
    6. Technically, BTC is in an overbought position on the weekly chart, so if there is a longer pullback I'd expect it might test the 14000 top which will be a 382% retracement of the Mar to Nov range.

    The gold market detected (5) above or the partial root cause and started trending up. This is part of the reason for BTC's rise but also because there is a digital paradigm shift underway which includes improving currency and fiscal and monetary efficiencies. That means monetary policy or QE is ineffective in driving general inflation but great at inflating RE and equities. They need fiscal stimulus because that hits the real economy directly. The opportunity with digital currency, is pollies will be able to control ALL stimulus by targeting specific cohorts with specific $$ and interest rates and therefore control the outcome more accurately - analogous to keyhold surgery. This is a signficant change in mindset for governments, but a natural evolution of fiat currency and obviously BTC is a maturing currency asset.

    So short term there will be some volatility but longer term, the macro picture has been painted and the reason I've taken a corrected sized position.

    To live in this space you need to get your head around the macro, be clear about a strategic entry / exit longer term (and short term mitigation) associated with that thesis and ensure your don't go overweight $$ unless your research is screaming to do so. That way you can mentally manage the pull backs and sleep well.
    Last edited by HCuser3: 09/12/20
 
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