We saw alot of MK criticisms over the last week and also some posts on value. So I've spent a few hours working up an operational model and DCF valuation based on:
- 18mt of today resources
- 6 yrs mine life
- consensus pricing + spot price premium that TTY is achieving
- Capital expenses on storage and ongoing exploration
- WACC of 13%
- factored in losses from MON investments
The 6yr DCF value is $2.50ps, i.e TTY could stop all efforts to explore and just pay dividends to shareholders. The overall value will be 3x current share price.
If market attributes 50% valuation discount to this project due to short life, then its intrinsic value should still be closer to 1.50ps
The point is simple, market sentiment is rather negative on TTY atm. Value emerges.
dcf valuation 2.58ps
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