Fantastic CD - easily the best post I've seen on the Invex...

Fantastic CD - easily the best post I've seen on the Invex boards since listing. Thank you for all your hard work in putting together this.

Some additional points:

Biotech Valuation
I use peak sales of between 3-5 multiplier for Biotech, but even a multiple of 2 times produces a sizeable number for acquisition.

Confirmatory Trial Costs
For the US trial, I suspect we will need a similar number of patients if they're running a confirmatory trial.

But based on everything the board has said, they're circumspect that PMD will show the efficacy needed to be a useful endpoint. More likely is that PMD will either be a negative endpoint or a positive endpoint but not at the threshold the FDA requires. The result will be that the company will go back to the FDA with the data and the regulator will either accept the overwhelming efficacy data and approve or ask for a confirmatory trial either with PMD or another vision endpoint. So for your model, I'd keep similar trial costs but expect that this is number will be in flux given that the regulator could come back with anything following their review of the IIH Evolve data.

Gross Margins

In case we were referring to the MST analysis(Page 15), they said it's 85% and 55%. I suspect that the company provided these numbers to MST given it was company sponsored.