Hi Tadtech, a good post.
This post of mine isn't meant to give you an answer but more my personal hunches from a CAS shareholder's point of view. I'll firstly give to a quick over view on why Crusader needs a financial partner and then why I believe Stratex wants to partner Crusader.
1st ~ Crusader has two world class deposits but no money for capex.
2nd ~Crusader was/ is being day/range traded to oblivion.
Okay, back when Iron Ore was worth a lot more than what it is today Crusader (CAS) was using the profits from it's Posse IO deposit to fund exploration, a scoping study and a feasibility study for it's Borborema gold project. Why Borborema was eventually put on the back burner after the feasibility study was unclear, you'd have to say it was because of Bororema's marginal profits (at that time) when compared to the risks investors were taking meant that CAS couldn't quite get the project over the line at that time. The World Bank wanted to fund Bororema to give the local districts employment opportunities. What is actually truth and fiction regarding Borborema is sometimes hard to say. The reality is however, CAS's aim was to develop a Gold deposit through to production, if Bororema wasn't viable, CAS was on the look out for a Gold deposit that it could develop quickly -- step forward Juruena.
THIS was when things started to go bad for CAS. Firstly, it coincided with the dramatic fall in the IO price -- There goes the profits from Posse to develop Juruena. Secondly, the development of Juruena has been going at a snail's pace. This has mainly been for two reasons. CAS management have under-estimated how long things take in Brazil, and secondly, the lack of funds has meant things have been done consecutively. What I mean is, any savvy operator will conduct development of any project on a concurrent basis. CAS just didn't have the funds to do that so have had to things one by one to try and extend the periods between capital raisings. As another poster said in a previous post however, the last couple of years as been a slow death by a thousand cuts for CAS. The share price which was over 40 cents around the time when Posse was still paying for things is now stuck between 10 to 12 cents.
The irony however, since CAS brought Juruena, the Brazilian Real has slowly collapsed. That fact as well as a reworking of Borborema's BFS where the focus is now on hitting the high-grade deposits first has meant that Borborema is now very profitable. Too late but, CAS brought Juruena to develop. So it finds it has two profitable deposits but no money.
Okay okay, why is Stratex so excited? Simple, the numbers! Let's look at Juruena first. Capex should be low with management's aim to contract most things out. First year of production before ramp up is said to be 40,000 ounces. My own personal opinion on margins per ounces going by grade, type of deposit and local costs (A truck operator is one/tenth the cost in Brazil compared to Australia) is $500 an ounce. And a think it will be shown that that figure turns out to be conservative. That equals AUD$20M in the first year of production, but more importantly, both managements think that Juruena can be brought into production rapidly with a injection of funds. That's the catalyst on why they believe Borborema will be successful. Juruena will be a short project at this stage. without further drilling, there's enough reserves to produce around AUD$110M in profits over five years at current prices considering ramp up as well. Borborema is a much much longer project and is the companies main aim. A high ounce producing Gold mine that can sustain a long term operation. Mineralization is still open at Borborema.
What is CAS's goal? Become a long term Gold producer where eventually profits go back to shareholders in the form of a dividend -- Isn't that what they all want? I'm guessing Stratex's management want the same for their shareholders. Why is CAS going to London? Because the share price won't go up in Australia. The combined entity will have a much much better chance of obtaining the funds needed from savvy London investors with a long term view. Australian investors only have a short term view ... generally!
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