de ja vu, page-126

i would love to say that i think saturday morning was low for the aussie and the spx, however the two charts are at odds for me at the moment. the aussie's downside looks complete, but the spx does not. as i mentioned in my post on friday night, resistence has formed at about 1343 on the daily and weekly chart. the positioning of my moving averages suggests that we may see 1343 in the next couple of days....but then what?

at the moment, without some fairly hefty momentum (caused by a reaction to another premature fed cut perhaps or perhaps citi reporting a surprise profit - hmmm, just joking), it's difficult to image that resistence being broken in the next couple of days. rather, it suggests that further downside is needed to breakdown the resistence to allow the next move up.

time will tell very soon - probably no more than a week - if we have seen the lows.

however, a quick comparison of present structure of my moving averages and say, the 2002/03 lows, suggests that there may be more downside on the spx - perhaps a move to the 360 moving average on the weekly (which from memory is currently at about 1340) but the fall could be as much as another 100+ points.

or we could just continue to bounce within this range for another 3-4 weeks.

3-4 weeks is what i continue to see as needed before any sustained move to the upside can occur. any attempts prior will just meet too strong resistence that would most probably fail .......however, strong momentum to the upside could most certainly change this picture.

i still think early april may be significant(around the 10th - again just from memory as i don't have my charts up and couldn't be bothered to look at the moment).

just my worthless 2 cents.