de ja vu, page-178

ETL

Just got back this arvo from the States so excuse the brief and slightly jet-lagged response:

1. If my memory services me correctly Dent focusses solely on the USA and doesn't factor a major Chindia effect there.

2. Yes I recall Buffett writing very similar things to Dent about the baby-boomer retirements spelling the end of the US golden age for a time.

3. Dents' premise is that the baby-boomers will leave the workforce and will still consume but will not add to growth and productivity in retirement in the same way they did when in the workforce.

4. Australia's demographic profile is similar to the US but without the large immigration and birth-driven population growth of the latinos that the US has - you could make a case that Australia's demographics are more problematic, but on the other hand Australia stands to benefit more from Chindia's growth.

It's all grist for the mill and for most of us is not tradeable - you would need to accept a huge timeframe and deep pockets.
If you buy the Dent/Buffett scenario it probably should influence your superannuation portfolio; your decision about whether to sell your house at the top of the market and rent/lease until the market falls and then buy back in; and also perhaps whether you should liquidate as many assets as possible and trade rather than invest your net wealth.