PEN 3.54% 10.3¢ peninsula energy limited

dead cat bounce

  1. 1,415 Posts.
    be prepared for one of these - tommorow even.

    It's going to be about 3 weeks until we see the next top 20 to know if the big holders have sold out today (or will have by early april) because if they have say goodnight for a fair while PEN...

    on the other hand, its possible it was bought up even more today by large holders, but I think less likely.

    The facts are this media hype is overblown, and as hartleys said: 'risks to the uranium sector have increased; although these are mainly sentiment-driven at present'

    the amount of radioactivity released from even the worst case scenario is probably nothing compared to typical coal plants that pump out deadly mercury etc and even radioactive isotopes themselves (from coal). But images of people quarantined and some dying, and 140,000 evacuations will be enough to slaughter uranium growth for a while IMO.

    So what's next for PEN? As I said all comes down to the U price, but obviously also manipulation of any large holders to get in/out.

    Be wary of any dead cat bounce, since it typically results in a continued drop with only more suckers stuck holding.

    If in the IMO likely case the big holders are getting out, they would only help to form a dead cat bounce to get out more.

    If in the less likely case they have not been holding the price down in order to buy up, and there is a bounce, wouldn't it be in their interest to keep it held down to keep accumulating?

    Along with that, if most holders generally didnt sell out today, because they want to wait for a better opportunity, the dead cat bounce will be an offer many will take.

    Historically, most stocks which crash like this keep heading down short-medium term and do not rebound. There some exceptions - eg. CDU, but you will find most of the times a dead cat bounce is your best shot to get out thanks to the suckers.

    So my real advice is the same as earlier - if you want to hold, do so, but if you want to buy in during this aftermath the odds are probably against you (apart from a very short rally) and you should use extreme caution! It is likely better to wait!
 
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