dead cat bounce, page-44

Good to see you back today mickey. You must be feeling a bit better after yesterday's shock. I realise how important this investment is to you.

I can't comment on dead cat bounces, but my feeling is that hold is still the definite strategy for long termers who did not cave in yesterday. As far as topping up or entering is concerned my feeling is that current levels should turn out to be excellent for long term holds, but for anything short they are a gamble.

It may be unlikely, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the SP head under 7c again before all this is over.

The macro environment of politics and public opinion will be volatile and threatening for a long time yet. The markets will echo this - and fundamentals will have less sway than they did just last week.

But eventually the issues will work their way through, positive sentiment, confidence and high U prices will return and companies like PEN will prosper.

So buying now - a gamble for short termers and an excellent entry for those willing to wait out the inevitable near-term volatility.

I don't, I might add, buy the line that we are in for a quick, sharp parabolic return to near recent highs (as much as I would like to see that). That is wishful thinking in my view. But it will come - we just need more micro progress (ie. permitting, DFS, Karoo Jorc etc) and macro stability.