dead cat or wild cat?, page-9

W27, you can question someone's motive on just about anything they do in life - the choice of car they drive, suburb they live, etc but it's of little relevance. For the record and as I have said before, I was a large holder of MAD back in 2011 and did well in 2012. I have since bought in a few times (and sold out as the stop loss price was breached). In that time, I also attended several company presentations at the Offices of Wilson HTM and indeed, I visited their site in 2011 while I holidaying in the US. So, I still have an active interest in the stock even though I am no longer a holder. Having said that, there is no rule on Hotcopper which precludes non holders of a stock to post about that stock. In fact, it can be useful because we can provide contrarian analysis in which to help you make informed decisions. Otherwise, Hotcopper just becomes an admiration society of posters who only say nice things about a company simply because they hold the stock. You often see it with the many likes pro company posts attract even if they are devoid of analysis. Meanwhile, your pockets are taking a hit. I've had the experience of losing money and believe me, it hurts. But like some holders on this forum, I kept holding stocks in the hope that things would turn only to incur larger & larger loses. The hard lesson I learnt was that (i) you never fall in love with a stock (ii) you can only buy into company hype for so long (iii) risk management is critical and (iv) the trend is your friend.

Re MAD, the only thing I will say at this point is don't get too hung up on the next reserves update. If you've been following company announcements and analysts coverage of the stock since 2011, a common theme emerges - reserves will only be validated by production. Production since early 2012 (when the 1,000 bopd daily milestone was reached) has been disappointing. That's why the market is largely discounting the stock. I recall sitting in a company presentation in March 2012 and Don Henrich telling us that we could comfortably allow for production increases of b/w 50-75bopd monthly from thereon. In other words, the company should now be producing at a rate of at least 2,500 bopd. Whereas production is all over the shop and you cannot predict with any confidence if the June Q numbers will show another decline, following the March Q's unexpected 17% fall. That's a huge number, considering they're drilled about 60 new wells since the milestone production of 1,000bopd in Jan 2012. Also, re Gulf South, I can understand your what you say. However, I felt the same way when Lee Clarke, a company director, coughed up $1.2M late last year to purchase 2.5M shares in the company at 49c per share. I reasoned that his purchase suggested blue skies ahead and would put a floor on the share price. How wrong was I. Enjoy the rest of your day.