deal or no deal, page-7

27.8% current.

I believe this number to have no influence at all in whats happening - I used to do takeover plays all the time, and the most consistant advice was to never accept untill the last day - fax it in the afternoon before official close is best!

The reason - because if you accept, and then the time period changes, then you have no ability to sell on market for a better deal, plus the only way to get a better deal is if it looks like failing at the death. Takeover companies dont start calling you for your shares untill the last 3 or 4 days of the offer either, usually.

Since my last post, the price has headed down a bit, then bounced a little - reflects a little uncertainty - but still trading in the range that assumes an acceptance, but without upside as the offer is all final.

acrushor, they cant delist untill over 90%, as to how tradeaable the company is if they get between 70 and 90, that will depend on how much of the reaminder is held by big institutionals that want to stick with it and get the advanatage of the special dividend etc.

The interview with the bloke from balance equities seem to hint that they wanted it to get over 70%, and didnt want it to fail, but also didnt want to get it over 90%. This remind me of HVN's takeover of Rebel - they wanted only 50%, but werent going to get there, so had to talk Rivkin into selling part of his stake into the offer to make it successful - now rivkin didnt want to, but he had to because the reason he was in the stock was because HVN were going to take it over.

In the same way, if BE want it to get overt the 70% mark, then they can make that come true if the they please on the afternoon of the offer close???

opinion only etc, please get your own advice......