At a population of 250 million in the USA, 50% being female, an...

At a population of 250 million in the USA, 50% being female, an impact rate of 1 in 16,000 female births, 36% take up and using $80k per year for the treatment, this puts USA revenues at $225 million per year. I am not sure how to extrapolate this to a worldwide number but we could probably assume a much lower take up rate but on a much larger population and you probably end up with revenues somewhere in the vicinity of $500 million per year for Rett Syndrome alone. I think we should also assume that any pharmaceutical company would want to quadripple their investment for the risk involved.

If we assume a market cap based on a P/E ratio of 12 to 15 then you get a total market cap of $6 billion to $7.5 billion.

If you use all the numbers above, you get a buyout figure of approx. $1.5 to $1.9 billion or a share price of $14.7 to $19.4.

This sounds too high so please let me know where I have gone wrong. Maybe the pharmaceutical companies need to make much more than 4 times their investment for the risk involved.