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$13.13 neuren pharmaceuticals limited

I should add that the numbers in my last post are potentially in...

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cableguy1411

466 Posts.

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08/03/18

08:48

Post #: 31608106
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Originally posted by cableguy1411 ↑

At a population of 250 million in the USA, 50% being female, an impact rate of 1 in 16,000 female births, 36% take up and using $80k per year for the treatment, this puts USA revenues at $225 million per year. I am not sure how to extrapolate this to a worldwide number but we could probably assume a much lower take up rate but on a much larger population and you probably end up with revenues somewhere in the vicinity of $500 million per year for Rett Syndrome alone. I think we should also assume that any pharmaceutical company would want to quadripple their investment for the risk involved.

If we assume a market cap based on a P/E ratio of 12 to 15 then you get a total market cap of $6 billion to $7.5 billion.

If you use all the numbers above, you get a buyout figure of approx. $1.5 to $1.9 billion or a share price of $14.7 to $19.4.

This sounds too high so please let me know where I have gone wrong. Maybe the pharmaceutical companies need to make much more than 4 times their investment for the risk involved.

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I should add that the numbers in my last post are potentially in USD not AUD.

Let's also keep in mind that if they go it alone and are successful, the end result could be a share price (theoretical) of somewhere around $60 to $70 in a few years time.

Once again, I may have missed something so please let me know if you disagree with these calculations.

NEU Price at posting: $3.09 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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