Hmmm interesting point however in retrospect I suspect the range of figures we are working with (1:10000 to 1:23000 and with us choosing 16000 as an approximate midpoint) are actually the estimated numbers at birth. So I have looked for figures in the whole population:
Retts:
From this website:
http://www.orpha.net/consor/cgi-bin/OC_Exp.php?Expert=778
"RTT primarily affects females, making it one of the most common genetic causes of severe intellectual disability in females. Prevalence is estimated at 1/9,000 in girls under the age of 12, whereas prevalence in the general population is estimated at approximately 1/30,000."
So using the total number of women in the USA as the base number (approx 166M in 2015) gives us a total of 5533.
Website for population I am using:
http://countrymeters.info/en/United_States_of_America_(USA)
So that would improve my numbers:
$55M USD from Retts
Fragile X:
From this website:
https://fragilex.org/learn/prevalencegenetics-and-inheritance/
"There have been a number of studies aimed at determining the prevalence of FXS in males and females. Studies have been undertaken both in the “special needs” population and the general population. The agreed upon prevalence of FXS in males is approximately 1 in 3,600 to 4,000 and in females is approximately 1 in 4,000 to 6,000.
The reason it is lower in females is that, while all males with an FMR1 full mutation will have Fragile X syndrome, some females with an FMR1 full mutation will not have behavioral, cognitive or physical features of FXS."
So using the midpoints 1:3800 for men and 1:5000 for women:
162M/3800 gives 42631 and 166M/5000 gives 33200
Using these figures gives $424M USD per year in revenue.
Total revenue of $479M USD
$639M AUD
$447M post tax
Roughly $4.47 per share giving a SP of $67
Which comes in line with previous posters estimates.
When you think of the other potential uses... and from the NEU website:
"Neuren’s second patented drug candidate, NNZ-2591, is a synthetic analogue of a naturally occurring neuropeptide, which has been shown to have neuroprotective and nootropic (memory enhancing) effects in multiple animal models. NNZ-2591 has shown encouraging results in wellvalidated preclinical models of cognitive impairment, Fragile X syndrome, traumatic brain injury, stroke, Parkinson’s disease, peripheral neuropathy and multiple sclerosis."
In reply to
@egosbar, in VERY rough terms I would expect we would see the drug through Ph3 in around 2yrs, 1yr for FDA approval, and another couple of years for sales to ramp up to the levels we are guesstimating. So something like 5yrs?
(20min delay)