Although I have no experience in biotech takeovers I do have...

Although I have no experience in biotech takeovers I do have some in the tech sector, being on different ends of the transaction at different companies.

as a general rule - lots of hypotheticals get played out, especially with regards to ensuring board support, key shareholder support and also the retention of key personnel. Wouldn’t surprise me if discussions are happening over dinners at conferences with a lot of hypothetical models to try and develop parameters around what would get the above stakeholders endorsement. I wouldn’t expect a BP to formalise a TO unless they know they had the support to make it work.
A hostile takeover isn’t going to be the approach when you are trying to retain the employees of a small and highly capable team.

we also need to be mindful of BP being fairly risk averse. It may seem like picking up up IMU cheaply (for arguments sake 1.5-2B) would seem smart now, but they may see the chance of success as 75%. Contrast waiting for further lab validation and once it’s 95-99% solid and paying $5B. Completely arbitrary examples but I think we need to consider the game theory of minimising the downside for a potential acquirer.

Similarly - play out the theory on licensing a specific platform. If BP is interfered in a single platform, they might offer a higher upfront payment and lower ongoing royalty / milestone payment if a company is desperate for cash. As an example, you could say 100M upfront + run phase 3 but then a 5-10% royalty for ongoing sales. We are very fortunate that we a) have the cash in the bank now and b) a regulatory framework that may not require some completing phase 3 and c) some degree of competition from BP. Hence we’d be in a position to refuse a cash up front offer for a longer term better quality royalty (ie 15-25% of sales)

from a commercial standpoint I think the company is in the box seat for negotiations, and improving daily every bit of data helps us de-risk and get closer to approval.

I feel the only thing causing us heartburn at the moment is impatient shareholders. I’m genuinely hopeful from the recent roadshow I attended out board will be able to hold on the a licensing agreement rather than takeover.

Remember - “to lose patience is to lose the battle”

cheers,

YS