Hey Water,
My analysis is my own personal view and when I look at the TA, can you blame me for being this bearish or negative?
View attachment 1887976I won;t bother with the daily, quite 'noisy'. Yellow highlight is the line of last defense I would prefer it not break and preferably not tested at all. When I see a break, my experience is looking at the price action suggest it is usually a dead cat bounce. Coupled with that trend channel and the positioning of the RSI, the odds favor continue trend down. Again the shorter term support 27C when it broke, it is logical to expect price to keep sliding eventually seek a lower support level. Again I did mention a few days ago that a break ST with an immediate next day recovery is how I see price action buying some time of hope that it could recover from a DCB to a continuation rally.
Now look at ORE.
View attachment 1887991 I didn't know where the bounce would be until post event, green arrow signal this is the level but could be even be a lower support level. Yellow arrow actually shows the higher low each time price pulls back.
View attachment 1887994On the daily if I were bottom picking, 2.35 would be my trigger level to limit buy. Did I know this level will hold? NO. It was a setup and a coin flip.
Going back to the weekly on ORE, the higher troughs are reflected in the RSI troughs, it is the nature of RSI calculations. Right now, the recovery is in progress provided eventually RSI breaks the 50 neutral level to the upside. Early entry has some gain tolerance where should price meander then continue down the bearish trend as you can see 1stQTR 2019, yo can be wrong and suffer a very small loss no loss or a small gain.
I won't bother with GXY, a bit better than PLS and that is all. As for AJM it seems to be tracking PLS. These are things I can see as opposed to things perceived such as FA. When you have the 2 opinions marrying as one then you get the long term trend such as CSL and its peers.
And lastly to add insult to injury, it didn't help when PLS is fixing recovery issues, dealing with offtaker reducing their commitment, falling Spod and not making profit. As I kept reminding, it is a credit to Ken for being able to raise so much capital but there is always a cost for such privilege. You most likely (my speculation) bring on board a capital provider with a board seat but I would not be treating this entity as a friend but opportunist. GXY was a precedent that I am aware of besides annaconda nickel where the BH held the collateral and would be first in line to claim asset should the worse happens. A month or 2 ago the yield on those corporate debt was running at about 8%, a discount of 4$ from coupon rate so there is appetite for the risk. Could be those holders thinking the company could survive, yield were just too attractive, or the GXY strategy? Who know why he market does certain actions in this game? Good luck.
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