Before reading this, I am not saying this IS the case, this is just a theory and it could be 100 different variations of this (or none of them) but here goes....
The closing auction tells a story IMO - someone is determined to close the price lower at the lows of the day, no matter what. Today 670K went through at 17.5, 299K at 18, and a paltry 117K at 17, including the 100K at the close.... As I've said, my main theory is there is still some deal being hammered out which is based on the April closing VWAP.
Someone tries to step up and close it at 17.5 and the seller is happy to sell 100K to get their lower VWAP. No-one sold at 17 all day and then someone suddenly feels the burning need to sell 100K at the close? And when a buyer is going to close it at 17.5 for 102K shares they adjust accordingly to ensure it will be 17.... just doesn't make any sense other than manipulation/accumulation.
Considering we all think the JSE listing won't be going ahead given the complete lack of news, meaning the VWAP clause for Mbila payment is redundant, I reckon there is a good chance there's another restructured (non JSE dependent) deal underway behind the scenes but the VWAP clause is still in play. That way the company keeps their cash at bank and issue shares as payment... has no effect on share price/value as we have to get the cash from somewhere, and I'd rather that they issued stock (let's say for argument's sake to the Mbila seller at the April VWAP) and that way we don't need any more money right through to production. We'd be able to afford the rest of the Mbila plant capex ourselves. Our the new offtake partner takes care of that we STILL have our cash... And it won't have mattered dilution wise wether it was on the ASX or JSE, the same value in shares will still need to be issued.
If I am even close to the mark, we'll have some dilution but to a partner with serious skin in the game, and we'll have cash and we'll have offtake agreement cashflows guaranteed. Not many coys out there with those apples.
I don't know if there's any reporting obligations by the original Mbila payment due date (regardless of whether the deal gets restructured or not) ... what I mean is, let's say they are doing an amicible restructure, can they take another month to do it or do they have to disclose to market by the original Mbila contract date which is next week?
Wang, the bot isn't there to do the actual accumulation, the buying is still being done at 17.5 and 18, tomorrow it may be 17.5 and 17, so they are still getting their fill of stock, if you get my drift, the bot is not necessarily trying to pick it up at the low of the day, that's just the water torture that makes people sell to them at 17.5.
We all know manipulation occurs, ASIC knows and can't/won't do jack about it, and we just need to stick with the story.
I hope the above makes sense, written in a rush....
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Last
1.4¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $62.63M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
1.4¢ | 1.5¢ | 1.4¢ | $17.39K | 1.232M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
17 | 7544693 | 1.4¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.5¢ | 3640267 | 14 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
14 | 7194693 | 0.014 |
26 | 9661131 | 0.013 |
14 | 5071617 | 0.012 |
9 | 5436000 | 0.011 |
15 | 5501000 | 0.010 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.015 | 2470274 | 11 |
0.016 | 9432322 | 16 |
0.017 | 5366909 | 19 |
0.018 | 3642683 | 17 |
0.019 | 3907068 | 12 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 15/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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