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Dec 21 - Quarterly Discussion, page-28

  1. 5,138 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 5195
    Hi @Fiendish your 37% average growth figure is technically correct, if you take only the last seven quarters. However I think this is not being totally honest with the figures; it is conveniently starting from the lowest base, i.e. from the Covid-crash onwards. Even well before Covid hit, the revenue was trending down fairly steeply. If you include the two quarters prior to that (to get a full FY for 2019) this is what you get:

    FY20
    30 Sept 19 - $215,000 (-30% vs PQ)
    31 Dec 19 - $161,000 (-25% vs PQ)
    31 Mar 20 - $68,000 (-58% vs PQ)
    30 Jun 20 - $118,000 (+74% vs PQ)

    FY21
    30 Sept 20 - $154,000 (+31% vs PQ)
    31 Dec 20 - $236,000 (+53% vs PQ)
    31 Mar 21 - $294,000 (+25% vs PQ)
    30 June 21 - $334,000 (+14% vs PQ)

    FY22
    30 Sept 21 - $396,000 (+19% vs PQ)

    Across the past 9 quarters the average growth has been 11%. A few observations from this information:
    • Revenue has grown for six quarters in a row which is a good sign
    • However the cost of getting this revenue has increased a lot (don't forget to keep tabs on staff/corporate/admin costs over the same period)
    • The revenue % increases appear to be getting smaller, not larger, at this point

    @wasko
    I hear you, but I don't believe you can include revenue that was earned by a company before acquisition (because there's no guarantee they'll earn that revenue in future). You have to take the 4C numbers as gospel; that's what CRO earned, and therefore what CRO can report. I understand your comments but I disagree that when it comes to considering the cash flow / numbers side of things, past quarters can just be ignored "because the business has changed" etc. The whole point of the cash flow statements is to dispassionately review company performance, in the absence of any "story" or "spin". It's a really important way to evaluate a company, and at this end of the market, perhaps is not done enough.
 
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