dec 23

Certainly alot riding on the next 20 days. Going by the $ raised so far it seems plenty have written the coy off. Menzies and Iain have committed big, but obviously its essential some serious $ is committed at 0.6c very soon to set a bottom. I get the feeling things are not as desperate as they seem.

Anyway - someone made the comment ECT is shot if the DFT stages 2/3 are done at 0.6c. Some will say it will be done lower, some will say higher. I'm basing the below on 0.6 although I reckon it will be done higher.

Assuming the full $3.8 mill is raised by Dec 23.

That gives ECT 2.4 Bill shares/oppies. Throw in another say 100 mill for Menzies/LJ and we have 2.5 Bill.

Looks ugly on the face of it. However that would be stage 1 done and LJ finito. Given Datangs $500k is no longer a priority - we can assume $500k of the $3.8 mill is available for whatever. Glad to see Datang on the back burner.

That brings us to stages 2/3 - which going by past info its around $2 mill to complete. Assuming its done at 0.6c again - that means another 500 mill shares/oppies.

So ECT will have about 3 Bill shares/oppies on completion of the DFT. Again...looks ugly, but is it?

The number of shares/oppies is 100% TOTALLY irrelevant - its the market cap that matters. Some of the MNM crew show their lack of knowledge of how markets work when they harp on this point. NWT is a case there...btw - re MNM - HOW can anyone take the brown coal side of things seriously??? They were/are rejected by the main game - LV power stations. End of story. BM is a multi year story of protests etc. Desperation. ECT's Coldry clearly have LYP's undivided interest as the premier LV drying tech.

Ok - so assuming all the raisings to get ECT to post DFT are done at 0.6c...therefore 3 Bill shares/oppies on issue.

Lets look at the oppies.

Im going to assume that by DFT completion (say OCT 2012) the coys existance is either ya or na. Assuming the DFT is ya. For ESIO to have any value by Jan 2014 - the sp must be at least 5c imo. The mcap would be $150 mill f/diluted with about $20 mill to be raised via oppie conversions....(btw Id like to see an AIM listing process begun once the DFT is sorted).

How is that going to happen? Is it realistic?

WEC had a mcap of $1.2 Bill before they even started their 1mtpa debacle in Indo - astonishing figure - but its real....instos were all over it BEFORE they even started building!

WEC's tech was never into China...why?...no idea but I reckon ECT's initial proposed Inner Mongolia (China) project ... 2mtpa -> 100mtpa will actually happen because the Chinese will make it happen asap. WEC's $1.2 Bill mcap suddenly looks attainable does it not?....down the track maybe.

Such is the market interest IF there is a coy out there that can get its act together to actually cohesively/economically dewater lignite/sub bit coal.

I reckon ESI's mcap will be at least $150 mill f/diluted by end of DFT. The worlds 1254 brown coal burners are going to be all over it as the DFT progresses imo. They are not going to wait until stage 3 is done. Stage 1 has some very juicy info for potential customers. Pas has posted some great stuff too on LYP's inevitable Coldry needs.

What about Matmor - lots in the recent preso's on Matmor - could that be a sp mover med term?

Obviously its ALL going to be initially dependent on the Dec 23 deadline. Tick Tock. Whats going to drive ppl to invest big at 0.6c...and soon....??

Not sure, but I reckon the carrot of Inner Mongolia (China - just above Beijing - bit like LV to Melb) production by 2014 with 100mtpa the goal - there has to be serious interest in ECT soon if ECT can provide some realistic/credible info to investors. Tincom involvement? Matmor somewhere?

Also - come Oct...ECT will own the DFT 100% - HUGE asset....assuming its proven which personally I dont have any doubt.

It means owning outright the first mover - commercially proven rights to the drying of lignite. It is Microsoft potential if it kicks off...imo

Economic lignite drying is something the world presently views as "the holy grail"....lets see...the Vic Govt has spent $400 mill over 20 years to develop something and failed.

Remember - this new Board/Management Team have been in place for only 4 months or so...and a very 4 turbulent months. They have achieved commendable things so far - but I also believe they are aware they need to nail something solid very soon to solidify the share price.

I reckon its a fair punt that they are going to make the above happen....first things first though.