dec half results will be solid: strong buy, page-7

rormon,

AFG management have released no specific earnings forecasts for FY08, and, you are right, they have been criticised by some analysts for this.

What they have said is that they are aiming for EPS growth in FY08 of 20% and that the Rubicon acquisition will be EPS neutral in FY08 and EPS positive from FY09 onwards. In other words, AFG have indicated in very general terms that they ARE expecting solid profit growth.

Given the spotlight AFG has been under of late, given continuous disclosure laws, and given the generally upbeat comments the company has made to the market recently, it is inconceivable that AFG will report any material decline in earnings for the dec half. As I said in my last post, a worst case scenario would see AFG report flat earnings relative to the FY07 dec half. However, I think AFG will actually report modest profit growth (although I think 20% EPS growth is too optimistic).

The all-important outlook statement is likely to be more cautious than usual (given global credit issues), but generally positive. AFG management should reiterate its expectation for solid EPS growth.