It's all confusing Sweetsound. The TC's on some shipments are at spot rates, some at a discount rate to the benchmark, the rest at the benchmark rate of $299/t ending up with a $259/t ave for Sept. We don't know the mix for this year, however from 2021, 84% will be at the benchmark which NCZ is assuming will be lower than this year. According to the red lines on the chart in the quarterly, the benchmark yearly prices are calendar years.
NCZ said "yet to see full benefit of recent significant spot TC reductions". As you pointed out above, NCZ has signed a spot contract (never knew they existed) for the Dec qtr at $157/t. However, we don't have a clue how many shipments will be at the lower spot prices.
Clear as mud.
As I was writing this I struggled to keep a straight face as I kept thinking back to Rod's disclaimer earlier -
All these variables could be higher or lower.
please correct me if I’m wrong
NCZ Price at posting:
18.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
