MGX

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41.0¢ mount gibson iron limited

December quarter predictions, page-55

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Samsonrises

675 Posts.

239

04/12/23

12:56

Post #: 71256433
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Originally posted by jdpc35: ↑

@ajk92.

My thoughts on this are:

1. We have a current market cap of $643m and we are forecast to close the half year with $440m of cash + debtors + mined stockpile. So, the market is placing a valuation of $200m on the operating mine for the remainder of mine life.

2. The mine (per the AGM presentation) has 12mt of reserves (let's ignore the resource for a conservative view) - at current 4Mt RoM, that is another 3 years of additional mining (say 31/12/2026).

3. On my figures, the mine is generating about $330m EBITDA at these RoM levels - so will generate about $1bn of additional cash between now and reserve exhaustion (excluding anything further they may do to extend mine life through resource conversions)

4. They start paying tax from next year, so that $1bn of EBITDA will be depleted by approx. $200m of tax paid (after deducting allowable depreciation from EBITDA).

So, we are left with a current market value of the mine of $200m for an asset that will generate approx. $800m of after-tax cash the next three years, excluding any other investments they may make in additional assets, etc.

With the level of cash they are generating, they have significant optionality to get into other very attractive projects and bring their operating skills and capital to the table to create shareholder value / build the next phase in the MGX journey. Plus, they can also sustain a modest dividend flow to shareholders. But at the moment, the market is treating this as a one trick pony who is about to go and "blow-up" about $600m of the $800m of after-tax cash they are set to generate in the next 3 years. Unlikely in my view.

On that basis, I agree that this seems to be materially undervalued by the market and at some stage we are likely to see a significant re-rate.

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Fenix and unless there is strangle hold on Pearl Gull will be on the radar for mgx acquisition

MGX Price at posting: 54.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last 41.0¢		Change -0.005(1.20%)		Mkt cap ! $498.1M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
41.0¢	41.5¢	40.8¢	$360.4K	877.9K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
6	168024	41.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
41.5¢	80475	5

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	115200	0.410
4	200000	0.405
6	201910	0.400
20	488572	0.395
8	688500	0.390

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.415	54684	4
0.420	240867	6
0.425	145000	5
0.430	107770	7
0.435	84986	3

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December quarter predictions, page-55

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