Deciphering Lynas

For discussion:
Lately there has been some good points/discussions regarding the overall business of LYC, including customers. As this has been bit of a black hole, and I'm on my second week of self-isolation, I decided to dig a little.

I've tracked down the overall flow of REE exports going out from Malaysia, and some information is (to me) interesting. First of all, the shipment data (REE by value) that I dug up corresponds well with LYC earnings (left panel, LYC revenue/export value), giving the data some creed. Plotting NdPr production on top of this, we can see that our revenue is very tied to this, but also that we have not even been close to Lynas NEXT production as of yet (7,200t).

In the right panel (export by value and destinations), we can see that we have the usual suspects - Japan and China - taking up a chunk of our products. China is, at least lately, to a large extent materials for HREE extraction, but may also include material to Japanese businesses within China (e.g. Hitachi). Regardless, shipments to China are reducing quite rapidly.

IMO, the interesting bit is the two other main importers - Vietnam and Thailand.. In Vietnam, our customer is most likely Shin-Etsu (Japanese), they have in the past couple of years expanded their NdFeb production in Vietnam. Shipping data from Vietnam also indicates that it is predominantly Nd/Pr that is going there. Thai REE imports are also picking up significant speed, last year it was ~11% of LYCs total revenue, up from nothing just a couple of years ago. IMO this is likely supplying VAC (Vacuumschmelze), a German manufacturer with mag production in Thailand.

So, Shin-Etsu is likely providing South East Asia with magnets with our products, while VAC likely is feeding in to the expanding markets in Europe. For LYC, it means we are not strictly tied to Japan - we can sell to highest bidder - and that we are growing our presence globally by proxy. VAC (private company) and Shin-Etsu are companies that, IMO, will play a big part in LYCs continued growth

All IMO, DYOR

Note: export values in left and right panels do not fully match, as right panel is straight up in MYR, while I've applied a yearly average exchange rate to the left panel.