Deciphering Lynas, page-150

Hi @toly I was looking at this when you posted, mainly with the 75% and Kalgoorlie rates at the back of my mind.. I've summarised my thoughts/data below:



To note:
-Mt Weld reserves are enough to support >33 years at Kalgoorlie production rate (10,500t NdPr pa, ~2x todays rate)
-Concentration plant at Mt Weld was optimised with mixed ore to around 38% tREO, at a concentration factor between 3-4x.
-The recovery rate Ore to Concentrate was originally ~67%, I think this is where a lot of improvements have been made (>80% now?).
-Currently, LAMP processing limit is around 65,000t concentrate.
-Circuits at LAMP are optimised for NdPr separation, ~30% of produced REO is NdPr (despite being ~23% of tREO).

What (to me) is also obvious, and what I've earlier pointed at, is that we can not get to a continuous Lynas NEXT rate without an increase in processing limits (by ~35%). Only other way would be to use higher grade ore and thereby increasing tREO% in the concentrate (to >55%). This would not be a good long-term strategy, and would require re-tuning of LAMP (IMO). In other words, while (perhaps) technically possible, it's not desired for long term investors, so we should forget '100%' (for now).. Instead, increased recoveries, dryer, etc may provide some additional output (5-10%).

Having said that, I have a sneaky suspicion the processing limit may be part of the 'significant development' that we all are waiting to hear more about..

Mt Weld is an amazing resource that will outlast all of our investment horizon. They are also still drilling at Mt Weld, so who knows what they will find.. I do find Daniel's response interesting though.. may mean nothing, or just standard due diligence, but 'We have not yet found another resource' would imply they ARE looking..

IMO, DYOR, comments/corrections appreciated.

ps as the operating licence isn't available (?), 65k t processing limit is inferred from a range of sources (e.g. environmental assessment for LAMP, shipping data etc).