LYC 1.39% $6.56 lynas rare earths limited

Update through June(a) LYC rolling Quarterly revenue (and...

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    Update through June

    (a) LYC rolling Quarterly revenue (and compared to rolling quarterly average NdPr price and monthly av SP).
    (b) Destinations of products (by revenue) Jan-June 2021

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3433/3433368-72271f4abebc19d6f1b866b10f37dc4f.jpg

    Also, as China is an ongoing topic, I'll include updated quarterly split, with % to China (note- in reality, Jap= Jap + Th + Vn):

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3433/3433378-1e59233612e52fcdf0f80a2123871946.jpg

    Since some are concerned the red dragon will eat us all, I've dived a bit deeper into the data. First of all, China has always been a customer of ours, and likely will always be. Their insatiable appetite grows quicker than ROW, so naturally there is a possibility more revenue will come from there, specially if we ramp up production (and possibly if there will be demands of 'green' credentials).

    Having said that, I managed to extract some interesting data:

    (a) Rolling Q revenue from China; (b) rolling Q sales by weight, and ASP.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3433/3433594-f6db6aa924668a1dbd83851192603bb5.jpg

    My takeaway from this is that by weight we are quite static with our sales into China (average ~400 t/m since mid-2019). ASP has, however, gone up by ~50%, so China-revenue is growing. I believe a significant part of this is SEG (I believe we currently sell most of our ~1,200 tpa SEG).

    As a bonus, we can see the Japanese market is back to, or exceeding, pre-covid levels (black line = 3m monthly Av weight):


    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3433/3433668-655bef7ac2e8dc4d9c57a1fcf6d51a7f.jpg
    As Amanda said in the Q call, Japanese market is very robust with strong demand.

    Notes:
    -all data June inclusive.
    -there is always a level of opaqueness in reporting, numbers don't always match up 100%
    -please note differences in currency, rolling Q, monthly Av, and Q.

    IMO, DYOR, questions/comments welcome
 
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