LYC 0.60% $6.67 lynas rare earths limited

Deciphering Lynas, page-831

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    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 2225
    Thought I'd update the 'things to look forward to' list I made in August:

    Complete
    FY23 financial report (Aug)
    Reported, was more or less as expected, some negatives and some positives (29th Aug).

    - Outcome of judicial review re C&L at LAMP (Sept-Oct)
    Amendment to our licence, continued c&l at LAMP (24th Oct).

    Upcoming
    - First output from Kal (Sept)
    We are still waiting for the official word that production of carbonate has commenced.

    - Drilling results from Mt Weld (Sept-Oct)
    Should be any day, as per the latest comments by AL they are waiting for assays. She mentioned they are 'very eagerly waiting' for the the results..

    - EPA approval of Mt Weld plans (Sept/Nov)
    EPA reported on their assessment today, take away message is:
    'The EPA recommends that the proposal may be implemented subject to the conditions recommended in Appendix A. '
    From a cursory look it's pretty much standard stuff. Appeals to be lodged before Nov 30, so ministerial approval wishfully before the end of the year, but more likely ~January.

    - Ground breaking at US site (January-March 2024)
    Based on the latest comments from AL, this timeframe is still probable.

    New
    -Update re Light REE in the US (Nov-March 2024)
    I believe the current contract for light REE is under re-negotiation. My guess is that the new contract will be 5-10x $ of current one. If correct, this could drop any time from now to early next year. While speculative, AL did kind of hint at this at one of the recent calls.

    -Reaching 750 tpm production (June 2024)
    As per comments from AL, we are essentially ramping from January onwards, to reach 750 tpm by ~June (equivalent to 9,000 tpa NdPr).



 
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