I think the Chinese have been calling the shots for some time now. The bad decisions have all been good decisions for China. They want the plant to process Talison's spodumene and wouldn't mind having the other assets also. Particularly if the KC quits SdV. They do not want GXY going into admin because that would allow the others (LG-Chem, ROC, SQM, FMC, etc) to bid for the assets. So, they plan to takeover GXY. The KC have put their hook in SdV and are not letting go. They have a supply agreement to take up to 70% of SdV's production and China does not like that. IMO, this is about security of supply and not about profit. I expect the rights will be about half subscribed and the rest will be all taken up by shortfall applications and placements. We wont find out about those for another 3 months. I have not made up my mind on the rights at this point. To me it depends entirely on the chance of a takeover happening within the next 6 months. I put the NAV around 12-15c but the sp could go to 8c (or a bit below that) given the uncertainty.
GXY Price at posting:
7.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
