Decisions...

Many people including myself are waiting for the next milestone in this political marathon where we will hear just what the future holds for Lynas in Malaysia. For many it is just another announcement that will complicate the path to unfettered RE production and continue to muddy the otherwise promising future for Lynas...

IMO, this is much more than a decision by YBY. The decision will be made in the middle of August and will define Malaysia as a country and make no mistake, the eyes of the world will be focused on YBY as she delivers her verdict on Lynas. Good or bad there will be significant interest by the press and potential investors and it will all play out in the public spotlight...

Let's suppose that Yeo decides to placate the other members of the gang and closes Lynas until further notice...

The first thing that will happen is that Japan will no longer receive the valuable Pr/Nd and other RE's it needs to continue manufacturing. Of course Japan is a manufacturing county but more importantly Japan is a regional giant and may find it easy to dictate policy to Malaysia to protect it's own interest.. Simply put Japan is "speaking softly and carrying a big stick" (T. Roosevelt)...

Let's suppose Japan accepts defeat and somehow finds RE's from a different source. The fallout from the international community would attract attention that YBY would rather not have and it will be difficult to reverse direction once a decision is made. Recently the excellent work of knowledgeable people in respected positions have made it clear that Lynas is not only safe, it is a first class addition to Kuantan and Malaysia as a whole. One can only imagine the downstream business that might be lost with an unfavorable decision...

OK, forget about the international community and consider what Malaysia would gain as a result of shutting Lynas down. First of all they would STILL have the waste already produced by Lynas. Upon eviction I'm sure the motivation at Lynas would be more directed towards expansion projects as opposed to arguing with Fuzzy about senseless waste mitigation. Second, they have eliminated many jobs from the Kuantan economy with little to show for it...

After weighing all the evidence it is hard to believe that the gang has enough political capital to continue what has become a last ditch effort to win a political battle. Their objections have become more irrational and they are fighing a growing chorus of pro-Lynas who are systematically discovering the truth...

The decision Yeo makes in the middle of August will be far reaching for the Malaysian people and every day it becomes clearer that there is really only one choice. My guess is there is some sort of a compromise in the works that will allow everyone to save face and be a win/win for all. It all depends on the decision...