declines

I am watching TXN declines closely as I am sure most are. Declines could be key given the recent experience with AZZ's terrible declines and how it damaged the company's ability to raise further funding to develop the EFS acreage.
For TXN, of course it's too early to gather from one 30 day rate. Funding requirements appear very different for TXN of course but worth bearing in mind how quick investors can turn the lights off at the party.

A quick TRRC check on the neighbouring Swift San Miguel well is that the published IP was 775 BOPD. Reviewing the first full month of production logged for the Swift well at the Texas RRC 18270 barrels of liquids were produced. See image:
[URL=http://img14.imageshack.us/i/swiftsmr1h.jpg/][IMG=http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/5848/swiftsmr1h.jpg][/IMG][/URL]

Dividing liquids July production by 31 days would equate to the Swift well with an average of 589 BOPD.

In comparison, TXN stated the EFS well has an IP of 1267 barrels of liquids, and the 30 day rate just released is 593 BOPD.

Note I have ignored the gas for simplification, but the AVERAGE rates of these wells for Swift and Texon appear remarkably similar (589 v 593).

As for what 60 and 90 days may hold, according to TRRC data, the Swift well appears to continue on a 50% decline for the liquids production for the second and third month (60 and 90 days). Again you can see this from the image capture from the TRRC.

Were a 50% decline to continue for the TXN well, you get 593 month 1, 296 month 2, and 148 month 3. From memory AZZ Frances Dilworth ended up producing at similar rates in the same county.

Just a hypothetical decline scenario would resemble what happened on the AZZ McMullen acreage, and what is already happening on Swift's neighbouring acreage.

I am not trying to scare anyone, DYOR, but these are testing times ahead and the next wells and the declines will be critical. Is TXN the next AUT or AZZ?

I would be interested in other thoughts. Good luck and please re-check the calcs for yourself and make your own decisions in case of errors etc.