The decoupling is not just an all or nothing phenomenon, instead it consists of several elements (as far as I did identify), which will be mentioned firstly. In total, it is a very complex phenomenon. In the second part of this chapter I will describe some very special observations with respect to the decoupling story and you may get crazy about - or think that I`m crazy. But there are undenyable facts, as you will see.
Elements of decoupling There are quantitative and qualitative elements, in addition to the most important D-Days of decoupling. Quantitative means, at certain days Gold rises more (in percentage) as the USD devaluates against the Euro (in percentage. Qualitative means, Gold behaves contrary to the USD: It rises, even if the USD rises against the Euro. Those days are sometimes commented by the media as being very unusual. The decoupling comes in phases - over some period of times (up to months) no decoupling may be present.
Then we have the D-Days: Gold rises nearly constantly over 24 hours, starting in the morning in Asia, running during the European time zone, continued through US-time until the next morning in Asia. So far I myself have only observed 7 of those days since May/June 2005 until now.
Why to mention these D-Days, since they occur so seldom?
Special observations Back in May 2005 I did notice something in the relationship between Gold and the USD which called my attention. Then, at the 1st of June I detected the first of the 7 D-Days. I immediately started international communication, but no one really paid attention. First of September another D-Day occurred and I again asked for comments of the audience - is there any systematic behind those days, will we have the next D-Day at the first of December? Again, no one paid attention. But at the 01. of Dec. 2005 we indeed got another D-Day (the third of all those observed by me).
Nothing like this did happen in 2006.
But did so in 2007 - it was again the first of Sept. and of Dec. beeing D-Days (so we had 2 years!!).
Nothing like this did happen in 2008.
But did so in 2009 - again the first/second of September (so we had another 2 years period).
Now look at your simple Gold-Chart: Since 2005 we had two major up-legs (mentioned in Chapter 1), which both exactly started at the 1st of Sept. of the related year, lasting for about 6 months, and the entire decoupling started at the first of June 2005. At the first/second September of this year another up-leg of Gold began, as everyone can clearly identify.
Crazy?
If you may sum up the D-Days just mentioned you will note that only 6 of these days were specifically listed so far.
One is missing and if I present the small story of the 7th, you may really get crazy about this story.
To be continued
transmeta
AR1 Price at posting:
7.2¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
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