Another element that I haven't really talked about is the impact...

Another element that I haven't really talked about is the impact of inflation on this business.
The business metcash mainly is in is wholesaling.
Therefore, they actually welcome price increases more than Coles, Woolworths, Aldi.

This makes things interesting. It means as costs skyrocket for manufacturers/suppliers, they can shove them through Woolworths/Coles/Aldi as generally they have price agreements in place, and seperate price increase discussions are had to have.

Metcash on the otherhand likes price increases as it's percentage based, so if the price goes up, and they maintain their percentage, then they'll make more net profit.

This will work well, and flow well in the short term, probably resulting in somewhat higher profits...

However, the shopper at an IGA/BottleShop/Hardware Store isn't silly. They'll purchase out of necessity, and then eventually move their entire basket of goods to a different retailer. Previous recession Aldi hadn't expanded into the rural towns like this time, likewise with Bunnings/Dan Murphys/BWS etc. but this time they've expanded quickly. Previous recessions people didn't have access to Home Delivery, whereas now they do.

I.e If you live rurally, you can get shopping delivered to you from Woolworths, and pay the delivery fee, and probably still be significantly better off value wise than purchasing from IGA store.

A lot of their stores are in coastal/rural towns, but as work from home arrangements continue to slow down in the next 6 months, it will draw people back to the office or cities.

Aldi also doesn't look like it is slowing down RE: expansion, so market share looks very different.

Overall, I see a big risk in this business, and I think management will pat themselves on the back in the short term, but I haven't read anywhere in any of the reports that they are positioning themselves to what is around the corner.

How will they compete when people are poor, when their model is to pass on the price increases?
Their fundamental numbers just don't seem to stack up.