defensive takeover strategies, page-4

Yaq,

The 1mthVWAP+40% is not a fiction

See the Peabody bid for MCC yesterday - about +40%

AWE - ADI 17/5/10
DTE - AZO 28/9/10
BPT - ITC 23/11/10
SXY (ex VPE) - STU 21/2/11

All the above 25-40% premium to the 1mth VWAP

Predators are not going to bid more than they have to

Evolution at work - cull the weak and the limp

The above reflect the typical M&A market at present

"Would ESG directors accept a lowball offer? " - you are joking surely . Did the AOE directors welcome Shell ?

Shell-AOE 22/3/10 (my bold)

"The Board of Arrow Energy Limited ("Arrow Energy") is pleased to recommend transactions that if implemented will deliver shareholders
- one share in a new listed entity, Dart Energy Limited; and
- cash of $4.70 per share"

"Cash component alone represents a 35 percent premium to both the last closing price and one month volume weighted average price prior to 8 March 2010 (date of original non-binding, indicative and conditional proposal from CSCo)."

STO is the only single party with some control over a takeover with its 20.97% and JV 35% . Why would the ESG directors hold out as a group? their average shareholding costs are probably in the low 20-30cps range or less.

Since the Carbon Price announcement ESG is now even more centred in the Domgas sphere. All the others will want the high margin LNG and ESG will be the big discovered resource to do the hard yards of Gas powergen. It will still be good income but not at a GJ valuation approximating LNG. I would prefer LNG like anyone else but STO said very early on that Domgas was its aim in NSW. It has only been when there was a prospect of more greedy trains at Gladstone that it made statements about Gunnedah supporting it up there.

This Carbon Tax plus the PRRT to come must be sending the LNG company Gnomes ino a tailspin. Something has to give. The Govt has to see reason or Projects are going to be culled or downsized. A 100% free permits scheme as I surmised before is necessary.

That absurd statement from Senator Milne that CSG is a disaster for Australia just riles me something fierce. It is the saviour of the Planet. Every Joule not generated by Coal is a Joule to be savoured and kept precious for a Gas burner to do.

Every Tonne of CO2e saved in Australia is precious to help cool the whole world. Once the Carbon Tax is working Australia will be a nicer place to visit. Tourists will flock here to see the Carbon Tax at work.


Cheers