Sabretoothed: Clearly you must have more experience than i do...

Sabretoothed: Clearly you must have more experience than i do with price manipulation around take overs, but if you are going to use examples, please get them right.

1) Lions offer to CCL was unsuccessful (so far)
2) their (CCL) share price has gone nowhere since... well for years.
3) the share price actually went up a little on the day before the offer was announced.

There is no natural buyer of VBA that i can think of. Expecting a T/O at this point seems like a little thought out dream.

However, I am massively bullish on VBA, not for a black swan even (read t/o) but for the fundamentals of the business. Heck, if they packed up tomorrow and distributed cash and proceeds from a fire sale, we would all get >65c per share. They have a young fleet (read low cost) and have been growing their market share for some time now. I dont know if they will make a profit this year, but i dont really care. Heck at this price you can buy it and hope it goes bust!