defies logic, page-25

Great posts today.

Have posted my thoughts on VBA here previously and not much has changed, except oil has fallen from $100ish to $50ish. The recent QAN announcement had some positives for VBA, particularly the strength of domestic and Jet Star. One negative was the extra $300m cost of oil due to their collar - bit of a mistake in my view, they should have just purchased calls and worn the cost as neither airline is benefitting much below $80 oil, however, as they are both at around the same level neither will have a competitive cost advantage over the other. Lower oil improves projections after this 12 months as well.

Interesting to see how shareholders vote tomorrow in relation to Godfrey's options tomorrow in light of the share price - can't imagine there are too many happy campers!

Always a worry with a large seller ahead of an important news day; I have been trying to rationalise the behaviour -perhaps REX got cold feet? Maybe Little still has some shares and happy to get out, perhaps there is a serious bear who does firmly believe VBA are going broke. Maybe someone has a large margin call? I don't subscribe to the conspracy theories that often abound regarding short selling and market manipulation...mass hysteria in my view!

Notice that VBA are upgrading their premium economy to include free food and free foxtel. If they just made the seats proper business class seats they might get some takers!