Well the article states:
"It was recently valued at $296m on Origin’s books and has 192 petajoules of proven, probable and possible reserves (3P) after its gas reserves were downgraded in February. No gas has yet been produced, with that expected to happen in 2020-21." With expected sale price of 230M -240M.
A simple calculation of Muhalo Reserves:
Taking 235M (as a likely sale price) / 192 Pj of 3P they are paying $1.22Mper PJ (235M/192PJ)
Comet Proven Muhalo Reserves are as the table below 564 PJ x 1.22M = 688M (or $1.02 per share $688/672 M shares on issue)
- But his ignores the proven reserves of Muhalo being 1P and 2P (as well as 3P) which are much more valuable than 3P.
- It also ignores that the fact that the current fully funded round of current work including dual lateral wells will likely massively increase the proven Muhalo reserves, potentially even doubling proven reserves in PJ.
- We also know that Ironside market price was discounted because the higher water production, uneven coal depths and general higher costs to produce from the field.
-This sort of analysis ignores the value of the Comet Galilee csg reserves and Galilee sandstone reserves which could be around a third to a half of the company value.
There is incredible upside in this stock and it will be realised by takeover or making it to production.
The USD oil price has softened recently but the AUD oil price that Australian producers such as Santos and APLNG are getting from Gladstone is sales still strong (with the falls in the AUD/USD) making Gladstone production very profitable.
We know that Santos dont have enough gas to run their Gladstone plant. We know that Muhalo is the largest undeveloped low cost reserve that is pump ready. We know there is a 4.9% 'nominees' holder based in Adelaide on the Comet Ridge Share register.
Apart from that we have now seen APLNG emerge as the likely successful bidder for Ironside (an inferior reserve). As a 30% holder of Muhalo they are well aware of the massive potential of Muhalo. Two very keen bidders to start before we go looking.
The share price is weak because of the large holdings of SH with low entry price cashing out and taking profits. There is nothing wrong with that, we are seeing baton changing with old stakeholders selling to new holders that can see the value of the reserves and the emerging takeover scenario or the prospect of Comet making it through to production with debt financing similar to Senex.
I am very happy to wait, why sell when the greatest dollar value gains are yet to come, in my opinion.
Good work Tor and team keep the reserve upgrades coming the sale price keeps ticking up even if the SP hasnt.
Good luck to all holders especially the long termers that have held their nerve.
Please DYOR.
(20min delay)