This is exactly the main game. The banks have more to lose if...

This is exactly the main game. The banks have more to lose if they decide to fold Centro - Rufarno knows this, SH's know it (at least the sensible ones) and the media know it.

The game is being played and its a game of hard ball and brinkmanship. I don't think Rufarno is going to blink first, the banks have too much at stake and besides, the banks are being paid their interest, bank profits are doing Ok and they have made some provisions for loss. All in all, the only real factor is if the current environment continues, gets worse or gets better.

Only if conditions get worse will the banks be ready to give up and fold Centro, however the indications are that perhaps the worst is actually over (give it another couple of months), in which case Centro may survive.

On the other hand, no-one really knows in the short term what the environment will be like - which is more reason to give Centro more time.

Needless to say that if Rufarno pulls this off it will be one of those "manager of the century" things.