Gee tough question and straight out I would be only guessing. Does anyone know of a similar situation - tax free status, biotech, paying big div, inability to claim a capital loss etc or such to draw a relative comparison?
At 60c your taking $100 Mill out of the company. I would expect some material impact. But IMO there's too many scenario's that I can't accurately account for how far it will go (if it does :)!). Stop/losses triggered? Is ACR part of someone's Margin Loan which is on the Base LVR, peoples Cash valuation on Company, are there buyers for the dividend only etc.
I could type paragraphs on big picture, Axiron sales, potential game changing technology, everyones different situation blah blah and still come out more confused.
Issue for me is more of how long is any move down going to be/remain? etc But other factors will affect that too!
BTW I see a positive is that funds are being returned to shareholders without materially impacting your stake. A nice risk reduction without selling off shares.
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