Has anyone else looked through the Deloitte independant valuation report with the AGM notice today?
Basically $0.70 to $0.90 but discounted to $0.50 to $0.70 based on 25% discount for "minority/lack of control" share ownership. Please note that this valuation is VERY conservative IMO with gas prices and valuations for Tilbrook/Paranui and assigns only $1.5m to other exploration permits.
The $2-4m value assigned to the value of the "Nazara transaction" I would suggest is excellent value based on the other transactions in the Galilee basins by AGL, etc.
The WCL share price in the short-term looks so weak but I have been trying to buy up more while it's at this level because my long-term average is 54c and I would love to get some more at anything below that.
I honestly can't believe how weak the CSG sector gets in between each major transaction/takeover. People forget that big money moves in this sector, often as the industry begins to look a little weak again. (Go through Appendix 4 of the Deloitte report today for an excellent summary) Even if only 2 of the bigger LNG plants in Gladstone (other than the LNG Ltd one) make it through to fruition, (which is my current guess), more gas will be required and further consolidation will be inevitable. WCL only need to develop 3P and more importantly 2P reserves diligently over the next couple of years - particularly at Paranui since there is already some infrastructure to get the gas to market from that region though a Moranbah-Gladstone pipeline would help Tilbrook look more appealing.
And I am watching closely the BUL drilling in the Galilee Basin (ATP813 I think) because success there, and a farm-in by KOGAS to commit further money to develop in that region (and abbot Point LNG in the future??) would re-rate the value of the "Nazara Transaction" presently pending.
Some of what I've written is obviously IMO, and I would welcome others comments about both the long-term value of WCL, and the current "Nazara Transaction" in the Galilee Basin. Would also like to know if I am the only crazy person still trying to buy more of this somewhat un-loved stock!
WCL Price at posting:
34.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
