After eight consecutive quarterly spodumene SC6.0 price...

After eight consecutive quarterly spodumene SC6.0 price increases a downward correction has arrived for now, will be short lived, the consensus is spodumene prices will most likely be positive quarter on quarter in the second half of CY 2023 as a pick-up in demand powers ahead of supply.

All in all, a small hiccup, considering the price will most likely remain above the June 2022 qtr US$ 4,267 per dmt which is a multiple of ten+ over the lowly Dec 2020 qtr US$ 395 per dmt price and four times more than the Sep 2018 qtr US$ 1,070 per dmt prices when Lithium 1.0 was at its peak.

The last two years have been exceptional for all lithium enthusiasts and investors of all types and sizes. After some consolidation there is still plenty more upside in this sector to come for all and sundry.

Delta LIthium is looking good, it may just be the next LTR via Yinnetharra. Assays could drop any day now. Bye & Bye …

Spodumene (SC6.0) concentrate prices by quarter since 2018:

June 2023 qtr US$ 5,000 per dmt (~-10%), AKE ASX Mar 2023 Qtr release
Mar 2023 qtr US$ 5,523 per dmt (-12%) , PLS ASX Mar 2023 Qtr release
Dec 2022 qtr US$ 6,273 per dmt (+30%), PLS ASX Dec 2022 Qtr release …
Sep 2022 qtr US$ 4,813 per dmt (+12%)
June 2022 qtr US$ 4,267 per dmt (+60%)
Mar 2022 qtr US$ 2,650 per dmt (+50%)
Dec 2021 qtr US$ 1,775 per dmt (+100%)
Sep 2021 qtr US$ 875 per dmt (+45%)
June 2021 qtr US$ +600 per dmt (+14%)
March 2021 qtr US$ 526 per dmt (+33%)
Dec 2020 qtr US$ 395 per dmt (0%)
Sep 2020 qtr US$ 398 per dmt (-3%)
June 2020 qtr US$ 411 per dmt (-2%)
Mar 2020 qtr US$ 419 per dmt (-19%)
Dec 2019 qtr US$ 520 per dmt (-14%)
Sep 2019 qtr US$ 608 per dmt (-11%)
Jun 2019 qtr US$ 682 per dmt (-14%)
Mar 2019 qtr US$ 791 per dmt (-14%)
Dec 2018 qtr US$ 930 per dmt (-13%)
Sep 2018 qtr US$1,070 per dmt (+11%)
Jun 2018 qtr US$ 960 per dmt (+7%)
Mar 2018 qtr US$ 900 per dmt (+7%)

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Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.
~ Dr Seuss

Notes:

“When adjusted pro-rata for actual lithia content, this represents a sales price of ~US$5,522/dmt (CIF China) on an SC6.0 equivalent basis for the Quarter (December Quarter: SC6.0 equivalent was ~US$6,273/dmt (CIF China)”. Extract from PLS ASX release titled March 2023 Quarterly Activities Report, dated 27th April 2023, p3.

“average sales price of US$5,702 /dmt CIF for SC 5.2%, which corresponds to approximately US$6,500 /dmt on a SC6 CIF basis, up 8% QoQ and above prior guidance. Pricing in the June quarter is expected to be approximately US$5,000/dmt CIF SC6.” Extracts from AKE ASX release titled March 2023 Quarterly Activities Report, dated 20^th April 2023, p1.

“Customer demand in the spodumene market remains robust, driven by lithium hydroxide requirements outside China, and pricing has better resisted the spot price erosion observed in China on other lithium products. Pricing in the June quarter is expected to be approximately US$5,000/dmt CIF SC6.” Extract from AKE ASX release titled March 2023 Quarterly Activities Report, dated 20^th April 2023, p5.

“LITHIUM MARKET
Demand
The first quarter of the calendar year is historically the slowest period of the year for lithium consumption due to adjustments to Electric Vehicle (“EV” subsidy policy, seasonal destocking, scheduled maintenance outages and the Lunar New Year break in the world’s largest market, China. During the quarter, demand continued to grow steadily in volume, albeit at a lower rate than expected and slower than what many had become accustomed to over the last few quarters.


Supply
Estimated lithium chemical production in China fell 4% quarter on quarter, attributable to seasonal factors that have impacted demand. Spodumene concentrate volumes shipped to China from Australia for December to February 2023 were 20% higher compared to the PCP due to new supply from brownfield expansions and restarted idle capacity. However, spodumene supply remains tight despite production increases, with the majority of the product already locked under existing offtake arrangements or allocated for internal consumption by integrated producers”. . Extract from AKE ASX release titled March 2023 Quarterly Activities Report, dated 20^th April 2023, p8-9.