Uranium production increases since Fukushima, creating an inevitable supply glut:
Country 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1 Kazakhstan 5279 6637 8521 14020 17803 19451 21317 22451 2 Canada 9862 9476 9000 10173 9783 9145 8999 9331 3 Australia 7593 8611 8430 7982 5900 5983 6991 6350 4 Niger (est) 3434 3153 3032 3243 4198 4351 4667 4518 5 Namibia 3067 2879 4366 4626 4496 3258 4495 4323 6 Russia 3262 3413 3521 3564 3562 2993 2872 3135 7 Uzbekistan (est) 2260 2320 2338 2429 2400 2500 2400 2400 8 USA 1672 1654 1430 1453 1660 1537 1596 1792 9 China (est) 750 712 769 750 827 885 1500 1500 10 Malawi 104 670 846 1101 1132 11 Ukraine 800 846 800 840 850 890 960 922 12 South Africa 534 539 655 563 583 582 465 531 13 India (est) 177 270 271 290 400 400 385 385 14 Brazil 190 299 330 345 148 265 231 231 15 Czech Republic 359 306 263 258 254 229 228 215 16 Romania (est) 90 77 77 75 77 77 90 77 17 Pakistan (est) 45 45 45 50 45 45 45 45 18 Germany 65 41 8 51 50 27 19 France 5 4 5 8 7 6 3 5 20 Total world 39 444 41 282 43 764 50 772 53 671 53 493 58 394 59,370 21 tonnes U3O8 46 516 48 683 51 611 59 875 63 295 63 084 68 864 70,015 22 percentage of world demand* 63% 64% 68% 78% 78% 85% 86% 92%
Even after Fukushima and the resulting decrease in the demand for Uranium, global uranium production has continued to increase. The spike in U prices in 2007 stimulated many companies to start digging, the only problem is that it takes a long time to get a U mine operational. With the wheels already in motion, even with decreasing demand for U staring them in the face, supply from new mines continued to increase. This generated a supply glut. Japan is unlikely to need uranium for many years to come with so much U stockpiled. Germany currently get over 15% of their energy from nuclear but plan to eliminate it from their energy mix entirely by 2022. China will build about 8 nuclear plants a year for the next 5 years but this is a gradual drip on the global demand side, which will be easily catered for by suppliers. Further Cameco's Cigar lake has the capacity to cater to the entire nuclear demands of China to 2020. That's one mine, that hasn't even existed on the supply side until this year, catering for all of China's demand.
Just noticed the spot dropped a couple of dollars and thought I'd shed some light on the fundamental reasons that can really hold back U producers.
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