re: a magic key! good read What I have been saying is that low priced pessimism
when What We have is really high potential reality
creates outstanding investment opportunities
The longer those conditions last the more HC members
can accumulate the greater positions
Here is some interesting ideas
They are assembled by a Victor Niederhoffer
"An overriding theme of our recent pieces has been that during times of great pessimism, stocks are priced to yield extraordinary future returns of the sort offered to venture capitalists -- 40% to 50% being the usual allurement. Along these lines, we have advised the steady accumulation of risky stocks at propitious times in the market cycle"
Yes after NASDAQ burst GCN was seen as risky sold for as cheap as .03.....SSI what maybe .115.....
OK ?
"In our current collaboration with Tom Downing, we looked at the performance of every company given any timeliness ranking by Value Line as of the end of each year from 1990 to 1999. We considered a total of 11,796 stocks.
Low price, high return
We then classified these into 10 categories based on the year-end price. The results are in accord with our previous conclusions on the merits of risky stocks. The companies with the lowest prices showed the highest returns.
For example, of the 434 instances where a stock was priced below $5 for one of the years studied, the average return the next year was 34%. For the 1,570 below-$10 instances, the average return was 22% vs. an average of 18% for all 11,796 in the sample.
Cheap stocks, great returns"
Got that you buy GCN at .
03 it is better returns going ahead than at .20
But .20 will be better than .50 or a $1.
( IF ! ) and you might have different criteria and risk profile... So you would only consider at a $1.
"Scientists use the term “bifurcation” to describe forks in the road of development. Lungfish take to living on dry land; ancient Romans build aqueducts when local springs, wells and rivers become inadequate; primitive people start breeding animals instead of hunting them. The mathematical term is “discontinuity,” explains Jane Jacobs in her excellent book, "The Nature of Economies."
(under presure GCN and SSI end up after 4 years or so
with china and gambling ! etc... )
""en something looks quite alluring, the path of least resistance is often to go with something less alluring, as the returns will be higher
Bifurcation also explains one of the problems with stock-picking systems, especially those that search for risky stocks: They tend to go haywire at just the wrong time, and to perform best when least expected. We refer to this tendency as the “principle of ever-changing cycles” and have written extensively about it. (Basically, it means that when something looks quite alluring, the path of least resistance is often to go with something less alluring, as the returns will be higher. Those who are interested in our ultimate source for this are encouraged to read Robert Bacon’s "The Secrets of Professional Turf Betting." "
OK look carefully here... Here is what I have found in My investing as well read on.....
"Longer is better
An interesting bifurcation emerged as we did our latest study. We found that when a company fell to a low price and stayed there for more than a year, its performance was much better than that of stocks that had more recently become cheap. In particular, companies that sold below $10 for two consecutive years returned 7 percentage points more in the next year than the corresponding companies in their price class that had been below $10 for only one year."
Here I wish I Knew how to highlight this bit
***************"During that two-year period it is likely that the company has developed a line of defenses in the spirit of Bronstein (See our column, “Invest like a market grandmaster“), or more importantly, opportunities and prospects for gain that a company that has just recently fallen below the low-price barrier may not yet have achieved."****************
GCN and SSI indeed been down ....But it was likely the reason they did not just disappear was because they did have real
strong lines of defense and were developing real opportunities and prospects.... In the mean time HC members could buy GCN down to .03 and SSI down to .115
Anyone posting in good faith and congruent with action
daring to put on record their view of an unknown and uncertain future.... Should be admired... In that vein there is NO Failure just honest endeavor...
And shucks GCN and SSI are not so tardy performers even at this early stage.......
BUT that is only MY opinion... And My opinion is just that
And at this moment...
those ever changing cycles are very real ( but changing ! )
Good luck to all fair minded and the true..
And I hope HC members are looking out for these
opportunities....
lets take TLS....It is down... If it stays down and stops going down.. We have that great opportunity of the trading range.... TLS will strive and change...because it is in a pressure cooker... accumulate enough at the cheapest prices.... and it will leave the trading range
which way ? when ?
OK EMI ...... well it's way.....
CLV..... too early in the cycle.... But looks so cheap
I started buying that one... 1 2 3 years so what ?
because risk and return come from the portfolio
Good luck in your investing
And I think it was a good read
powerful methods
a magic key ?
That the cheaper you get something good the better ?
And that Mkt market is well worth studying...
SSI merger vote tomorrow..
I am sure SB wishes all HC holders well..
And if good for SSI ,,, I think will be good for GCN
But Do your research
My opinions My view
My understanding
at this moment...
motorway
