derisked....how much?

Hartleys reckon risked @ 10%, NWE's unconventional assets are worth 16 cents per share.


But how much has it been de-risked already?

We all know the following, but for the sake of newcomers and the discussion, I will list them again:
Arrowsmith-1 - flowed at 4mmscfd and is only a few hundred metres away
Irwin River Coal Measures - flowed 1mmscfd at Corybas-1

BPT booked 2TCF contingent resource from two drills @ 2mmscfd each...which then proceeded to add about 600m to the market cap.

Cores blistered overnight when wrapped in nylon wrapping.
US experts believe the shale contains good fracking qualities analogous to some of the best shale in the US
Testing of the HCSS produced "encouraging" results according to the company.

Same US experts reportedly "excited" about the HCSS potential for tight gas.

If the High Cliff Sand Stones come good in the first stage of the frack, then it will be commercialised ASAP => cashflow and further derisking.


Executives heavily invested with their own money, including the recent SPP.


So, given all that and Hartley's valuation of 16cps @ 10% risked, is this appropriate?

I am in the 20-30% camp, but those returns are so big that they don't seem particularly likely in the ST.

Please share your thoughts. DC, you too! ;)