LYC 2.86% $6.11 lynas rare earths limited

descending triangle target 29.5c, page-46

  1. 2,364 Posts.

    By the way chi 'Does the plant work?' is a pretty weak attempt at finding downside IMO.

    Designed by Rhodia; it's a state of the art version of a tried and true technology (La Rochelle++ essentially). Of course it won't work perfectly right off. From what I can tell from the design, even catastrophic failure of a major component would lessen rather than stop production. For example phase 1 has 2 rotary kilns and most (all) of the components are multiple arrays acting -at least to some extent- in parallel.

    Malaysian sovereign risk? IMO low risk possibly big impact.

    RE price is the biggest worry IMO. Especially with the Chinese stockpiles and capacity. Moly and China apparently have a similar or higher COP than the LAMP so if we can't make a buck out of RE noone can; no market stays that way longterm. Improved of stable REE prices OR confirmation that the offtake agreements are still in place would settle that worry.
 
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