descending triangle target 29.5c, page-72

5hareholder,

Fair assessment. But yours is a status quo analysis. It is linear.

Demand and supply move together. You are (inadvertently) indicating a lack of understanding of economics.

Yes, if demand is 12ktpa and it stays that way producing 70ktpa in aggregate is patently stupid and wouldn't happen.

As supply comes online, and does so in a cost effective manner, it will be mopped up. The demand line moves commensurately. We get to a new equilibrium. And new pricing to boot. How is it that you missed or ignored this?

I'm just stating how basic economics works. Your demand equation is wrong/incomplete/missing.

As for supply, yes the numbers stack up but there are so many caveats here. Why oh why is teh world itching for and banging on about "reliable supply"? It isn't reliable. Once Lynas completes first and continued output in days time, and Molycorp too you might as well subtract what China has to offer completely.

Also it would do to read up on the amount of serious trouble Molycorp is in.

On another note, did you know China imports coal from all around the world? China has stacks of coal (albeit low-ish quality)? If enough supply comes on line China will stop producing and just import what they need just the same. They do this with Coal, Irone Ore and a bunch of other raw materials.

Put all this together, Molycorps woes, manufacturers itching like a Heroin junky to get supply ex-China and you have a different supply-demand equation and a reasonably good story not a bad one.

Just my $0.02.

Cheersw na dgood luck.