austtedI suspect you haven't looked at the facts. The devil is...

austted

I suspect you haven't looked at the facts. The devil is in the detail. Below is extracted from every Orbis Notice of Change lodged with the ASX.

Price Date of Change New Holding
0.435 2/03/2011 6,227,203 111,432,010
0.415 2/12/2010 6,470,639 105,204,807
0.410 24/11/2010 6,091,937 98,734,168
0.420 18/11/2010 6,820,700 92,642,231
0.420 19/10/2010 7,576,311 85,821,531
0.820 23/04/2010 -6,509,626 78,245,220
0.765 15/04/2010 -6,384,499 84,754,846
0.575 21/10/2009 6,352,305 91,139,345
0.640 14/10/2009 8,661,790 84,787,040
0.480 10/08/2009 6,176,317 76,125,250
0.405 3/07/2009 6,337,976 69,948,933
0.445 22/06/2009 6,577,020 63,610,957
0.505 3/06/2009 6,260,904 57,033,937
0.485 22/01/2009 6,844,084 50,773,033
0.685 7/01/2009 6,359,524 43,928,949
0.720 19/12/2008 14,840,194 37,569,425
1.515 15/07/2008 22,729,231 22,729,231

Orbis was a seller in April 2010. Orbis apparently bought the "Marchant = Change" line in late 2010, comfortable that the NTA was 40 cents at 30/6/10 - see http://www.paperlinx-sux.com/2011/11/pxupa-holders-beware.html

Orbis hasn't bought below 41 cents.

I may be wrong, however you seem to switch arguments to suit the occasion. Previously, success with AEU implied Orbis was right with PPX - now "no one gets it right all the time".

My interpretation:

Orbis was confident of its position until Black Friday, 13 May 2011 when PPX made that fateful ASX Release. Its been downhill for everyone since then.

Orbis, MBA & Schroder are trapped; and their mandates are investment not M&A.

Instos are rational people. Checkout all the substantial holders 2007-Dec 2011 at http://www.paperlinx-sux.com/p/twitter-paperlinxsux.html

NOTE FOR ALL. I study PPX/PXUPA carefully and make decisions on facts. When I'm proven wrong by facts, I'll admit that too.

At the moment, none of the logical buyers of PPX or PXUPA are willing. When the Dec 2011 figures are released things may be different; however I speculate it won't be a brilliant first half. Anyone for 3-5 cents in March 2012?