Graham
Interesting analysis. Apparently Orbis lightened up in April 2010 but bought back in between Oct 2010 and March 2011. With hindsight they obviously would have done better to buy later and currently they are underwater. However they have not sold any shares since April 2010 so it looks as if they believe PPX will recover. Also with their shareholding you would expect they have influence on the Board and have confidence in the new management.
>I may be wrong, however you seem to switch arguments to suit the occasion. Previously, success with AEU implied Orbis was right with PPX - now "no one gets it right all the time.
I do not see my position as inconsistent. As we all know no investor can get it right all the time. However Orbis have a good track record and even though they mistimed their PPX investment I as somewhat reassured they remain heavily invested.
>My interpretation:
>Orbis was confident of its position until Black Friday, 13 May 2011 when PPX made that fateful ASX Release. Its been downhill for everyone since then.
>Orbis, MBA & Schroder are trapped; and their mandates are investment not M&A.
I do not agree with your intrepretation. Obviously Orbis reassesed its position in April 2010 and lightened up. However after the SP dropped they bought back in implying they still saw value.
They are investots not M&A as you suggest but that does not mean they were or are trapped. They could have continued to lighten up if they had the view you express that PPX is a dead duck. Sslling at any price is better than a complete loss. The same applies to your PXUPA units. If you truly believe PPX will go broke perhaps you should liquidate? PXUPA would likely lose its value along woith PPX in a liquidation as others have written.
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