Will Galaxy Resources Be Next with Some Good News?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4111348-will-galaxy-resources-next-good-news
The following response lays out the facts squarely asking fellow readers to question whether misinformation (not being fully truthful) is actually standard procedure with GXY:
Where is the deal that GXY CFO, Alan Rule, stated for SDV as an imminent deal since early 2017?
https://thewest.com.au/business/dig...e-to-secure-lithium-says-galaxy-ng-b88561463z
The company has been pinged by regulators and forced to clarify the Panasonic situation. See "Galaxy Resources strikes deal with Japan's Panasonic"
http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...m=1&client=safari&hl=en&gl=au&strip=1&vwsrc=0
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-response-to-asx-price-query.3731274/#.Wozn9WZL0Wo
It appears the same team of misinformation disseminators were again at it recently on a BMW deal:
"Market analysts are questioning whether lithium producer Galaxy Resources could be about to to strike an off take agreement with BMW amid…"
See The Australian,
"BMW may sign deal for Galaxy Lithium" February 12 2018 [paywall]
How is it that Galaxy Resources has extremely high profile exposure to ramping misinformation in mainstream press in Australia? Is it purely journalists attempting a fairy tale or something more insidious? You have to ask before you invest why does this occur, and will this pattern continue? How do I know, as a retail investor or institutional investor what is real in the marketplace?
Why will GXY not progress and likely fail ?
- Sal de Vida (SDV): SDV has been shown to have a low recoverable rate of lithium carbonate per hectare. It appears the deposit may be full of fresh water which can happen in salars.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/41...le-thumb-lithium-projects-potential-argentina
Almost 5 years since this asset was first acquired and ultimately taken control of by GXY no substantial progress has been made other than opinion pieces that something or someone wants to do a deal. It appears as soon as any hydrologists were to evaluate the project that any interested participant would walk away.
- Mt Cattlin: Plagued by problems, delays and commissioning issues. The asset appears to be marginally profitable but at the top quartile of the cost curve. It is clear that once the initial resource is mined (should be gone by now) the costs to mine increase exponentially as GXY chases thinner and less profitable seams at a greater depth. My opinion is this asset has a two year life, the high level of impurities in the deposit do not make it viable in the long term and is likely to suffer the same fate again when it went into care & maintenance
- Small deposit compared to PLS or KDR.
Post 28872215 Airconditioner 16/11/17
“In local WA lithium news, Albermarle have put the frighteners on the independent spodumene converters in China with their plan to build a Bunbury processor.
Whether or not it happens, whether GAM blocks them, how much and when it comes online - but even the threat of the withdrawal of their Chinese tolling arrangements put at least a couple of hundred kt hole in forward contracts that nobody but Galaxy is doing anything to fill. No surprise that the sector will now want to lock in Mt Cattlin LT supply contracts.”
Complete obfuscation of the facts! See above for correct information. PLS and AJM will be up and running this year KDR not far behind and AVZ up and running within 12-18 months. Chinese are not held back like miners on Australian home soil. Fast timeframe to production in DRC by the Chinese. No EPA, Workcover, Native Title, DLI regulations,
“Greenbushes represents something that they don’t want to admit -
that theoretic capacity or large hard rock operations seriously lags actual production figures (DYOR check Bunbury port data) and they do not appear to scale well at all.
There is not enough experience on the ground in WA to make accurate predictions of costs this far out from production and the whole “no mica” thing is a fabrication concocted by the Pilbara forum. (DYOR) as was the brine vs hard rock thing. (DYOR)”
Greenbushes is mining at USD 480/ton due to depth. The lithium carbonate onsite is an absolute requirement to extend the life of the deposit. Without this the additional cost of transport would likely make the project not economic. All the easy to access and close to surface seams have all been mined out. The proximity to a national park limits the projects footprint and makes approvals for further development a nightmare. This project is in perpetual decline.
“Still - I don’t mind one bit that the sp has raced ahead in the Pilbara.
It presents a ludicrously strong logical case for GXY’s own rapid re-rate to $5 and beyond as they are a long way from out-producing MT Cattlin and getting their debts under control.”
“For some reason GXY’s additional assets are seen as a road block to further sp increase. Beats me why. Each asset should have a commensurate valuation with the unbuilt projects of the next wave because they are just as certain to come into production. A new JORC for JB is due very soon and should make a few worshipers of the word “BIG" very happy. 6.53% spodumene and 75% recovery were the old figures, and already well inside the quality range of GB. Plenty of new drilling now complete to suggest that the new jorc will dramatically increase the tonnage (and possibly even grade??)”.
James bay is in deep freeze over the winter period. Open cut/ pit mining in -17*C average is not easy, just see what happened to RB Energy. The processing circuits keep freezing for multiple years until the project went bankrupt.
The cold weather combined with transport distance will make this another high cost project globally and at risk to any price corrections.
“A wild and unscrupulous prediction from me for the next 6 weeks’s action -
up, flat, flat, up, down, flat, suddenly up another $1.
$5+ under the Xmas tree and to celebrate GXY’s 10th Birthday”.
JANUARY 24, 2018 14 Investors are rightly taking steep projections of demand for lithium from battery makers with a pinch of salt. Australian miners of the briny stuff have seen stocks sell off an average of 12 per cent since Monday last week. The context is that shares in Pilbara Minerals and Altura Mining have more than doubled since September, although they have yet to start selling the metal. Rival Orocobre gained two-fifths in the same period. Its share price has held up compared with rivals. Last week Toyota Tsusho, the trading arm of the Japanese conglomerate, paid a 17 per cent premium for a 15 per cent stake. Car battery technologies rely heavily on the material. But investors should stay clear of producers’ shares at these levels. In October, Macquarie analysts projected 45 per cent demand growth until 2020, but expect it to outstrip supply only two years later. They think half of lithium demand in 2022 might come from electric vehicle batteries — 10 times the share last year. Past estimates have tended to be over optimistic. High share prices are underpinned by such bullishness. Pilbara, which mines rock deposits for the metal, is expected to become one of the largest producers along with Orocobre, which extracts the metal more cheaply from salt flats in Argentina. Toyota Tsusho already owns a quarter of this project and the new funds will be used to boost capacity to three times the 2018 target. Orocobre’s contract prices increased 3 per cent in the most recent quarter with an operating margin of two-thirds. But price increases have recently slowed. Supply gains must ultimately bring it down. The sector’s recent volatility highlights nervousness. The miner’s shares trade at 35 times their forward earnings, two-fifths above Galaxy Resources, but far below Pilbara and Altura. Mineral Resources trades at half that multiple and already produces substantial tonnages. The hype about lithium stocks will continue, despite production ramping up. Strategic investors such as Toyota Tsusho need the metal at any price. Stock market investors do not. The Lex team is interested in hearing more from readers. Are lithium stocks overvalued?
https://www.ft.com/content/526082ec-facc-11e7-a492-2c9be7f3120a
Alternatively:
https://newsstand.google.com/topics/CAAqJAgKIh5DQkFTRUFvS0wyMHZNRFZ3WWpKc2NCSUNaVzRvQUFQAQ(google account required)
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- Compelling evidence don't you think of what the insto's think of Galaxy?
